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Friday, August 21, 2009

The Price Is (not) Right: Rookie Contracts In The NFL Are Absurd


If anything at all in the National Football League needs to be fixed (and fixed fast), its the absurdity of just drafted and signed, fresh from college, rookie football players.

It is absolutely mind blowing that every year, teams will hand over unorthodox amounts of money to a person who has not yet played a snap in the NFL. Even more ridiculous that they will gave large portions of it it guaranteed money!

Let me fill you in on an example of this preposterous idea; Last year, the Detroit Lions had the number 1 pick in the draft (for that perfect season), and they chose and signed rookie quarter back Matthew Stafford. He was the top ranked QB in the draft, so it makes perfect sense that the rebuilding Lions would choose him first overall. But all "Sense" is thrown out the damn window when you hand a rookie player a six year contract worth around 70 million dollars with 40 million guaranteed.

Think about that for a second, think about how much money he's getting before he's even anything, not attended a single practice, or took a snap in a single game, completed a single pass, nothing. Yes, he was a standout in college, but does that justify awarding him a big fat pay day on the hope that he will make that transition to professional football and do just as well? The answer is no, players that show talent and accomplish things should get the big money, not the rookies.

This year Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Roddy White held out for a week of training camp to gain a contract extension that he felt he had earned. The past two years he put up over 1,200 and 1,300 yards respectively, and was 4th in receiving yards last year. He has shown how talented he can be over the past two years, and was rewarded with a six year 50 million dollar contract with 18.6 million guaranteed.

Matthew Stafford, who has not even played in the NFL yet, received overall 22 more million then White for a 6 year contract, with 23.1 million more guaranteed then him. Can you not see how very wrong this is? I'm not saying Stafford can not come into the league and make the kind of plays that deserve that much money, but he should not receive it until he can prove it.

If those examples don't put this injustice into perspective, maybe the next one will. I'm sure a lot of you remember Ryan Leaf? In case you don't, here's the lowdown:

In the 1998 draft, the two top players were promising star quarter backs. Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were college stars and high valued draft picks. The Indianapolis Colts with the 1st overall pick, chose Peyton Manning, and the San Diego Chargers chose Ryan Leaf with the second. Both were signed to large rookie salaries as to be expected from such high caliber players.

Peyton Manning went on to break numerous rookie, and season records, win three MVP awards, win the Superbowl and Superbowl MVP, among other accomplishments. There's no doubt in any one's mind that Manning is worth the money he's paid. He's a great example of what you can get for your money, but not a common one.

Ryan Leaf was viewed as possibly a better QB then Manning when drafted, and was signed to one of the biggest contracts ever by a rookie at that time. After being signed Leaf was quoted as saying:

"I'm looking forward to a 15 year career, a couple of trips to the Super Bowl, and a parade through downtown San Diego."

I'm sure the Chargers still have nightmares about him, given the fact that the supposedly legendary Leaf's NFL career only lasted four miserable pathetic years, and was widely viewed as the biggest bust in NFL history.

This sums up perfectly just why rookie players do not deserve big contracts. The risk-reward is ridiculous and its unfair to veterans and players in the NFL that prove their talent and get paid less then the kids straight out of college. It just does not make an ounce of sense.

What needs to happen, is the league needs to put in place a rookie salary cap like in the NBA. If I ran the league, I would go as far as to make rookie contract details limited to one-two year, and 10 million dollars. After the first year, the team can choose to extend the contract the desired amount of time, and associated pay increase. Then the "lets throw 50 mil in their pockets and pray they don't suck" mentality can actually become a much more rational method, rewarding accomplishments and not hopes and prayers.

Clash Of The Titans ; Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin (UFC 106)

In Brock Lesnar's 4th professional mixed martial art's fight, he captured the UFC heavyweight title, by pounding out UFC legend Randy Couture's face prompting a second round stoppage.

Some UFC fans were slightly offended at the ease of which Lesnar acquired his title shot, saying he did not accomplish enough to deserve it (being 2-1 prior to the title bout). After winning the belt, Lesnar next defended his against the only opponent he lost to in his short career, Frank Mir. Many people that were not fans of Lesnar believed the fight would end much like the first, by submission due to lack of technical skill by Lesnar, and good Ju Jistsu by Mir.

A slightly overlooked thought was that in the 1st Lesnar-Mir fight, Brock had him on the ground beating him pretty good, a stoppage seeming imminent until he hit the back of Mir's head, forcing the ref to stand them both up (and deduct Lesnar a point). Upon taking Mir back to the mat, Lesnar made a mistake trying to pass, got caught by Mir and submitted in the Kneebar.

In the rematch for the title defense the fight was not all that different from the first one, except that Lesnar played it a little more carefully, taking Mir down, using his superior weight and strength to hold him, and pound his face to a pulp.

Anti-Lesnar fans will still allude to his lack of technical skill and reliance on size and strength to control the fight, as well as an untested chin. All of is true in my mind, but simply put, it might not matter in the end. They are waiting for someone to come in and show him just how inexperienced and untalented he is, but it might be a while before that happens.

Originally, Heavyweights Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez were to fight at UFC 104, to decide the number one contender to take on Lesnar for the belt. But just recently the fight has been broken up (supposedly for reasons relating to scheduling and the health of Lesnar), leaving Cain Velazquez to wait until a new fighter is found for his bout, and Shane Carwin has since been moved to fight Lesnar for the title in UFC 106, as the main event.

So will Carwin be a true test for Lesnar's monster strength and size or just another face for him to rearrange? Lets examine a few of the aspects of the fight:

Size/Strength:

Lesnar (6'2) cuts to the max of 265 pounds but is more likely to be at least 10 pounds heavier on fight day. Compare that to his fights against to his previous fights; Heath Herring (a sizable 250), Randy Couture (a small 225), Frank Mir (a decent 240). He had the weight advantage on all of them, and in the fights he could control a lot with his strength alone. Carwin (6'4) cuts to around 255 pounds, so he might just be Lesnar's heaviest opponent yet. Carwin's has fought several fighters around and above his weight and below it.

Experience:

One of the biggest thing's to talk about with Lesnar is his experience, anyone who isint a fan of him will surely bring up his "undeserving title shot" or that he has not "proved anything", and their may be some truth in those words, but is irrelevant to the fact that he's not going to get beat easily. His record stands at 4-1, hardly anything to write home about, but he holds the heavyweight title and is one of the UFC's biggest stars, like that or not. As entailed in details above, two of his fights were against Frank Mir, losing the first, and defending the title in the second. The other 3 fights were against Randy Couture for the title, a decision win over Heath Herring, and a victory over a no-name in his first fight. Not much experience, but it hardly affects his attitude come fight night. Shane Carwin, on the other hand, is undefeated at 11-0. The casual fan might see that and go "woah, his record is twice as good as that bum Lesnar", and numbers wise sure, but in reality, only 3 of his fights have been in the UFC, the most notable was his last victory over Gabriel Gonzaga. Nevertheless, Carwin has won every fight he's had, and that's still a notable accomplishment.

Technique/Style:

Lesnar and Carwin both come from wrestling background in college, and both also have shown very heavy hands in their fights. (Google a picture of Heath Herring's eye after fighting Lesnar). Lesnar has 3 TKO victories and one decision, while Carwin has 6 TKO's and 5 submissions (not letting a single opponent get out of the 1st round). Lesnar is notably not very technical, he probably wont be submitting anyone anytime soon. His match up against Carwin is interesting because they share such similar styles that it will most likely either be a brawl, or a quick beat down.

Overall:

It will be interesting to see if fighting someone as big and heavy handed as Lesnar will pose significant problems or not. His best bet in my mind will to replicate his last fight with Mir, take Carwin down, hold him and beat him up so to speak. Sure it may not be technical, it may not be beautiful, but it may or may not be the difference between Carwin leaving with a new belt, or a new face.

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Bucking Broncos; Can Denver keep their offense steady without Cutler?

A starting off season blunder occurred when new Denver Broncos coach Josh Mcdaniels started doing some moving and shaking with his new roster, supposedly thinking up this fancy scheme that involved sending Jay Cutler to the Buccaneers and getting Patriots backup QB Matt Cassel to come to the Broncos (I suppose McDaniels was lonely, and needed a friend).

Any player would agree that (supposedly) being used as trade bait without your knowledge, would be upsetting to say the least. Cutler, seemingly more sensitive then the normal professional football player and grown man, stayed angry at the coaching staff even after they tried to come and warm back up to him.

Regardless of if Cutler's behavior or McDaniels persona pushed the hands of fate, as we all know Cutler got his "revenge" and was promptly traded to the Bears for QB Kyle Orton and accompanying draft picks. But where does this leave the Broncos offensively?

In 2008, the Broncos offense was 3rd in the league through the air and 2nd in the league in total offense. Jay Cutler was 3rd in total passing yards and yds per game, and 2nd in throws for 20+ yardage.

On the Bears side, they were 21st in passing, 26th in total offense with Orton was 19th in yards, and 21st in yards per game. Although, Orton did not have the set of receivers that Cutler had, having Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal both in the top 10 for receiving. The most player who caught the most balls on the Bears was not even a WR, it was their RB Matt Forte. The toss up is how much of positive/negative stats you can devote to being the fault of one end of the offense or another.

There's no doubt in my mind that the improved talent of Orton's new wide receiver corp should give him some better numbers and more confidence in the passing game. But as far as if will be as successful as it was with Cutler at the helm, I suppose we'd have to wait and see. In my mind it will not, Cutler was just the better (more sensitive) quarterback.

Orton sure is not making progress easy with his rough preseason debut, where he threw 3 interceptions and zero touchdowns, while his counterpart Chris Simms followed behind with 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

It is a preseason game, and it is Orton's debut with a new team, learning a new offense and new teammates is not a change that happens overnight by any means, but if asked to make a quick prediction, id say two thirds of the way through the season, Denver fans will be yearning for their old QB.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Poor Gegard Mousasi

Mixed Martial Art's pay scales between two fighters competing are sometimes vastly irregular, with the more accomplished or popular fighter sometimes earning a lot more then his opponent.This is apparent in a lot of fights in MMA organizations, both the UFC and outside of it.

For example, in UFC 100 Brock Lesnar with only several fights under his belt, defended his just acquired heavyweight title belt against Frank Mir and won. His pay for the evening was estimated to be around 400, 000, while Mir's was a sad 45,000. These situations happen all the time and I feel less inclined to react just because I still feel like 45 grand for 10 minutes time is good money, and most athletes agree with this (ask Forrest Griffin)

Then after StrikeForce had its event last weekend, I saw the salaries for the fighters. I wasn't surprised that the pretty poster girl of women's MMA, Gina Carano got 125,000 to get her face beat in by that crazy thing called Cyborg, while she only got 25 grand for a 1st round TKO stoppage.

The most surprising still was when I went farther down and discovered the Gegard Mousasi - Renato Sobral fight. In case you missed it, Mousasi destroyed him without even breaking a sweat in the 1st round. Sobral the more popular well known fighter got a cool 75 grand to heal his post fight headache, while Mousasi, the impressive victor only received 2,000!

Disparities between fighter salaries is not new, but that is a ridiculous amount to be paid. Fighter salaries are worked out before fights im sure, but if i ran an MMA organization like StrikeForce and saw my chump change fighter destroy the much higher paid Sobral like that, I would be embarrassed, and apologetic.

No wonder Mousasi did'int look that excited when he beat down Sobral, he probably knew he was getting the monetary equivalent of a high five.

The ComeBack Kid; Why Old Man Favre Could Be Good News For The Vikings

Once again, as the entire football world has heard by now, good old Brett Favre has come out of retirement (how many times now?), and finally made it to the team he desired to play before he was traded to the Jets.

Some of the football community is tired of his charades over his "to retire or not to retire"drama sessions, and some enjoy that the legend is still around playing the game, though the general consensus seems to be certain he will finish the self destruction he started last year.

Vikings fans could have a good reason to be happy about famous number four signing with their purple people eaters, because like it or not he could be the very push that helps them get through the playoffs.

The Minnesota Vikings are a solid football team but just a slight step down from Super Bowl contender. In 2008,they went 10-6 and lost in the playoffs to the Eagles, after having trouble converting 3rd downs in the second half, and having a QB capable of throwing only roughly half the yards Mcnabb threw for.

Last year the Vikings ranked 1st in rushing yards a game allowed with 76.9 yds, and 6th in total yards allowed a game also with 292.4 yds. These stats were very much indicative of a very well disciplined defensive unit.

On the other side of the ball, they had league's best running back in Adrian Peterson (1760 yds), and the 5th best run game (146.1)

The problem resided in their passing game, ranked a measly 25th overall, with their Quarter Back Gus Frerotte ranking 22nd in the league accompanied by his sub par 73.7 QB rating (5th from the worst) that year.

Even with this horrendous passing game to keep the offense creative, the Vikes still managed to rush an avg of 4.5 yds a play, 146.1 yds a game, even when the defensive knew pretty much what to expect.

Now bring in old man Favre, the fallen war hero with a passion for football and himself. He was traded to the Jets last year, led them to playoff possibilities and promptly self destructed. His QB rating was a mediocre 81 he was 11th in yards, 22nd in avg yds per pass, and had the league high in interceptions, and hearing this sounds like no good way to promote Favre into the Vikings savior, and maybe he's not. But Gus Frerotte threw the ball significantly less then Favre did with the Jets, and Favre had the 5th highest completion percentage compared to Frerotte's 24th ranked.

The biggest part of the puzzle regardless of the stats is that Favre does not have to carry the team, the amazing ground game has carried itself when the passing game had no help to give. Favre has the ability to make good throws and be a great QB, we've seen that. And we've also seen him throw to the other team just as often these days.

If Favre can come in, make himself seem like he has a lot of potential to improve the passing game, and seems a viable threat (that Frerotte and Jackson are not), then defenses will have to start actually accounting for the idea that maybe just maybe the vikings will show some promise through the air, instead of on the ground where they normally stay (and stay well).

Remember how well All Day Adrian Peterson runs the ball even when the defenses know he's coming, then imagine what he could do if the defenses had to account for the passing game as well, backing off from the line for fear that the guy getting the ball hiked to him in the purple uniform actually is a threat, then ladies and gentlemen the vikings just might be unstoppable...Providing that Favre can still identify his receivers from the defenders.